DATASET

POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario

Collection: POTEnCIA : POTEnCIA scenarios 

Description

The POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario describes the projected evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in this scenario set-up, but will miss the mid-century GHG-neutrality target announced in 2018 by the EC. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. In 2030, energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set by the 2030 EU framework for climate and energy are not reached, indicating the need for additional policies and measures. The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts. The Central scenario report is accompanied by the release of the comprehensive model output with detailed information by sector and country on an annual basis between 2000 and 2050, as well as the underlying exogenous assumptions. The historical period 2000-2015 is based on and further complements the decomposition of statistical data as performed in the publicly available JRC-IDEES data-box.

Contact

Email
JRC-C6-POTENCIA (at) ec.europa.eu

Contributors

  • Leonidas Mantzos
  • Tobias Wiesenthal
  • Frederik Neuwahl
  • Máté Rózsai

How to cite

Mantzos, Leonidas; Wiesenthal, Tobias; Neuwahl, Frederik; Rózsai, Máté (2019): POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/3182c195-a1fc-46cf-8e7d-44063d9483d8

Keywords

Climate change Energy Projection Baseline Energy system model

Data access

POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario
URL 
  • The POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario is made available through the JRC Big Data Platform (JEODPP).

Publications

Publication
The POTEnCIA Central scenario: an EU energy outlook to 2050
Mantzos, L., Wiesenthal, T., Neuwahl, F. and Rózsai, M., The POTEnCIA Central scenario: an EU energy outlook to 2050, EUR 29881 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019, ISBN 978-92-76-12010-0 (online),978-92-76-12009-4 (print), doi:10.2760/32835 (online),10.2760/78212 (print), JRC118353.
  • Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Publication page 
  • Abstract

    This report describes the evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in this 'Central' scenario set-up, but will miss mid-century targets. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 will not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures.

    The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.

Geographic areas

European Union

Temporal coverage

From date To date
2000-01-01 2050-12-31

Additional information

Published by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Created date
2020-12-04
Modified date
2021-06-23
Issued date
2019-10-29
Landing page
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/potencia/central-scenario 
Language(s)
English
Data theme(s)
Energy, Science and technology
Update frequency
unknown
Identifier
http://data.europa.eu/89h/3182c195-a1fc-46cf-8e7d-44063d9483d8
Popularity
06 May 2022: 1 visits