DATASET

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy

Collection: DATAM : Data/Modelling platform of resource economics 

Description

Employing an economy-wide model (JRC DEMETRA), the analysis provides a detailed characterization of the AfCFTA impacts on the Kenyan economy in the 2021-2035 timeframe. It considers two liberalization scenarios — tariff-only liberalization and tariff&Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) liberalization — across four potential liberalization schedules defined by alternative government revenue, food security and economic development objectives. To capture the responses to the AfCFTA establishment occurring outside Kenya, results from a continental-level assessment are linked to the DEMETRA model to determine changes in international markets. The study findings show that the tariff-only liberalization leads to moderate positive outcomes, encouraging trade in commodities where Kenya already has a comparative advantage, namely cash crops. Moreover, there is a decrease in the production of food crops which are substituted by their imported variety signalling an increase in import dependency in this area. The tariff&NTMs liberalization induces a more significant reduction in trade costs thus stimulating trade. Exports of cash crops continue to have the highest expansion rate followed by manufacturing products. At the same time, there is an important growth of imports in manufacturing and processed food, which determines the output of many activities in this area to reduce relative to baseline values.

Contact

Email
jrc-datam (at) ec.europa.eu

Contributors

How to cite

Nechifor, Victor; Boysen, Ole; Ferrari, Emanuele; Simola, Antti; Nandelenga, Martin; Laichena, Joshua; Malot, Kenneth (2022): The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/22616990-a02a-4888-8918-d9e9998bf634

Keywords

CGE FTA DEMETRA Kenya MAGNET

Data access

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy
URL 
  • Interactive infographics

Publications

Publication
The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy

Geographic areas

Kenya

Temporal coverage

From date To date
2021-01-01 2035-12-31

Additional information

Published by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Created date
2022-03-08
Modified date
2022-03-25
Issued date
2022-02-15
Landing page
https://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/area/PANAP 
Language(s)
English
Data theme(s)
Agriculture, fisheries, forestry and food, Economy and finance
Update frequency
unknown
Identifier
http://data.europa.eu/89h/22616990-a02a-4888-8918-d9e9998bf634
Popularity