LF412 - Residential areas per inhabitant (LUISA Platform REF2014)

The impacts of current and planned policy initiatives can be simulated by using modelling tools and indicators, which help determine the effectiveness of policies in attaining targets. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform was configured to assess the spatial impact of the “EU Energy Reference scenario 2013” on the efficient use of natural resources in the EU-28 in a short time period (2010-2020) and in a long term vision (2010-2050). A set of Resource Efficiency (RE) indicators were computed to measure [1] the progress towards the efficient use of land and water as a resource and [2] the performance on the actions and milestones on natural capital and ecosystems proposed in the RE roadmap, in particular biodiversity, safeguarding clean air, and land and soils. The modelling results show that by 2050: [1] the share of built-up area in the EU-28 will increase by 1%; [2] the EU-28 will use the land less efficiently; [3] the water productivity is expected to increase on average 8%; [4] the landscape fragmentation in the EU-28 will show no significant changes [5] and the PM10 concentrations in urban air and population exposed will remain constant.

The Communication from the Commission on the Roadmap to Resource Efficient Europe (RERM) defines a set of milestones to illustrate what is required to put Europe on a path to resource efficiency and sustainable growth, thus contributing to a global economic transformation. The 2020 milestone for land is defined as "By 2020 […], the rate of land take is on track with an aim to achieve no net land take by 2050[…]". DG ENV and JRC are conducting a study aiming at assessing the level of effort needed in the EU in order to reach the land milestone set in the Resource Efficiency Roadmap. The study will also analyse environmental consequences of reaching (or not) the 2020 milestone. The study is divided into three parts, covering the following:  the progress towards reaching the 2020 milestone related to “being on track towards no net land take by 2050” in the EU27 (Part I);  the environmental consequences of the achievement of the 2020 land-take milestone (Part II);  the efficiency of land resources’ management in the past and in the future (Part III). This document presents the results of the Part I of the study. The methodological framework relies on an integrated modelling approach based on the Land-Use Modelling Platform (LUMP) . In this modeling platform, three land take

development scenarios are being developed and assessed.