LF332 - Energy content of dedicated energy crops (LUISA Platform REF2014)

The compressed zip file contains the projected energy content maps from dedicated energy crops for the Danube region, from 2010 to 2050. The data is stored in .csv format.

The compressed zip file contains the projected energy content maps from dedicated energy crops from 2010 to 2050. The data is stored in .csv format.

LUISA webpage (European Commission - JRC Science Hub)

The main topic of this paper is modelling the spatial allocation of 2nd generation feedstock

(lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in Europe. The Land Use Modelling

Platform (LUISA) has been used in order to simulate the land use changes from 2010 to 2050. The

configuration of LUISA is detailed, highlighting the biophysical suitability aspects of two main

energy crops groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops. A suitability map for each

energy crop was generated using multicriteria analysis (MCA). Biophysical factors (climate, soil

properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific

land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis

of the set of selected factors was then applied. The sensitive analysis provide insight into the

most influent factors on the model, highlighting temperature, precipitation, length growing period

and frost free days. The results of modelling 2nd generation feedstock in LUMP clearly reflected

the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated

in the range between 12.25 PJ/year (in 2020) and 33.18 PJ/year (in 2050). The aggregated

results of 2nd generation feedstock per NUTS3 level were mapped to show the energy crop land

allocation trend and to identify the regions where its demand is significantly high such as

Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.

NOTE: The former acronym 'LUMP' is used in the paper instead of 'LUISA', due to the timing of submission and revision of the paper.

The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities.

LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators.

This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets).

Main findings:

• The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases;

• Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010);

• Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050;

• Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land;

• While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production;

• New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status;

• The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050;

The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system.