Energy projections for African countries by 2065

This dataset underpins the study "Conflicting objectives of energy development and water security in Africa".

The study provides insights into energy supply and demand, power generation, investments and total system costs, water consumption and withdrawal as well as carbon dioxide emissions for the African continent.

A model was developed to evaluate energy supply and water requirements to cover the energy needs of the African continent during the period 2015-2065. The model was developed using the open-source modeling system for long-term energy planning OSeMOSYS. The objective function is to minimise total energy system costs, rather than, for example, co-optimise the energy and water sectors. Other energy resources were also included in the model except for adding the water analysis, and the dataset was updated based on the latest available information. The OSeMOSYS model developed to conduct the study “Energy projections for African countries”, itself extended from the Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA), was further extended, included exports for all fuels and water loss due to evaporation in hydropower plants. Furthermore, the latest available data on the energy system of Africa was also updated.

The TEMBA model produces aggregate energy, and detailed power system results in each country in the African continent. The power sector results are also reported with power pool aggregation.

The OSeMOSYS model and input data used to produce these results can be found at https://github.com/KTH-dESA/jrc_temba/tree/version1.4

The initial study was funded by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (contract number C936531 - JRC/PTT/2018/C.7/0038/NC).

Energy projections for African countries by 2065 for three GECO scenarios (reference, 2°C and 1.5°C) based on the TEMBA model.

OSeMOSYS JRC-TEMBA open source model was used to generate energy projections

This report provides insights on energy supply and demand, power generation, investments and total system costs, water consumption and withdrawal by the energy sector as well as carbon dioxide emissions for the African continent.

The energy supply systems of forty-seven African countries are modelled individually and connected via gas and electricity trade links to identify the cost-optimal solution to satisfy each country's total final energy demand for the period 2015-2065. In this analysis, The Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA) was extended to include a simple representation of the full energy system. It was also updated to include new data. Simulations were run using the medium- to long-term Open Source Energy Modelling System tool (OSeMOSYS). The TEMBA model produces aggregate results for the whole continental energy system and more detailed ones for the power system of each African country.

The scenarios examined in this study consider different emission trajectories and technology availability. The Reference scenario considers the national energy policies that were in place until 2017, whereas the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios examine emission levels aligned with the climate targets agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. The scenarios have been aligned with the "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances" report of the Joint Research Centre (Keramidas et al., 2018). The results demonstrate that power generation capacity will need to increase 10-fold from 2015 to 2065 to meet projected electricity demands. A significant proportion of this capacity will likely consist of renewable energy sources, particularly under the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios, as technology costs fall. On the contrary, there will only be little investment for new coal generation. In addition, a number of African countries will invest in nuclear power plants and CCS technologies (biomass, coal, gas) in the future in order to achieve the emission targets set in the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios.

The results also indicate how water demand from the energy sector could evolve. Under the Reference scenario, it is estimated that by 2065 the African energy system will contribute to a water withdrawal of approximately 4% of the total renewable water resources (TRWR) in Africa (3,950 bcm) (FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, n.d.). On the one hand, this share appears meagre, but in reality, this number must be analysed in the perspective of the nexus between water for food, energy, household and productive uses. Most of the thermal power infrastructure is not located in remote places and is rather near to population centres. This creates an added complexity to future infrastructure planning. On the other hand, water withdrawals are expected to decrease to 1.2% and 1.6% of TRWR in the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios respectively by 2065 owing to deep decarbonisation of the energy sector.