The economic Multi-Regional Input-Output (I-O) tables used in the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2022 for the Reference scenario are presented. The Reference scenario (Baseline GECO 2022) represents a projection of the world economy with corresponding energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The I-O tables are supplemented by energy balances (in physical units) and GHG emissions projections.
The I-O tables and the data on bilateral trade flows are derived from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 10 database (Aguiar et al., 2019). The I-O tables are reconciled and projected for future years using a multi-regional balancing procedure (Temursho et al., 2021; Wojtowicz et al., 2019; Rey Los Santos et al., 2018), which ensures consistency across the various data sources used in the Reference scenario of the GECO 2022 (Keramidas et al., 2022).
Garaffa, Rafael; Ordonez, Jose; Vandyck, Toon; Weitzel, Matthias (2026): Baseline GECO 2022. European Commission, Joint Research Centre [Dataset] doi: 10.2905/JRC.3RE2WM0; 10.2905/DF6CFD52-EE0C-4647-A2B3-5FA56B8B5AB0 PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/df6cfd52-ee0c-4647-a2b3-5fa56b8b5ab0
BaselineClimate ChangeEnergyInput-Output tables
The "Global Energy and Climate Outlook" (GECO) is an annual publication of the JRC, produced in collaboration with DG CLIMA.
Based on quantified assessment by the JRC's internal energy-economics teams, GECO provides a global picture of energy markets as they transform over the next decades, under the simultaneous interactions of economic development, technological innovation and climate policies.
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This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2022) presents an updated view on the implications of energy and climate policies around the world. Current climate policy pledges and targets imply a rapid decline in greenhouse gas emissions, but there remains both an implementation gap in adopting policies aligned with countries’ mid-term Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Strategies, and a collective ambition gap in reducing emissions to reach the Paris Agreement targets of limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to 1.5°C. This report provides insight into the structural evolution of energy trade in a decarbonising world in the coming decades. With a greater share of energy produced domestically, the decarbonisation effort results increased energy self-sufficiency. We examine the role of hydrogen specifically: the share of hydrogen and of derived fuels in total global final energy consumption remain low by 2050 (7% and 5%, respectively). International hydrogen trade is limited (6-11% of hydrogen demand), with most trade taking place via pipeline from neighbouring regions. The trade of hydrogen-derived liquid fuels is more pronounced (up to 25% of these fuels' demand) and takes place over longer distances by ship. Embodied energy trade remains an important element in a decarbonised global
economy, while shifting away from embodied fossil fuels towards embodied low-carbon electricity.
| From date | To date |
|---|---|
| 2020-01-01 | 2050-01-01 |
