DATASET

Baseline GECO 2024

Collection: Baseline-GECO : Baseline for the Global Energy and Climate Outlook 

Description

The economic Multi-Regional Input-Output (I-O) tables used in the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2024 for the Reference scenario are presented. The Reference scenario (Baseline GECO 2024) represents a projection of the world economy with corresponding energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The I-O tables are supplemented by energy balances (in physical units) and GHG emissions projections. The I-O tables and the data on bilateral trade flows are derived from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 11 database (Aguiar et al., 2022). The I-O tables are reconciled and projected for future years using a multi-regional balancing procedure (Temursho et al., 2021; Wojtowicz et al., 2019; Rey Los Santos et al., 2018), which ensures consistency across the various data sources used in the Reference scenario of the GECO 2024 (Keramidas et al., 2024).

Contact

Email
Rafael.GARAFFA (at) ec.europa.eu

Contributors

How to cite

Garaffa, Rafael; Ordonez, Jose; Van der Vorst, Camille; Weitzel, Matthias (2024): Baseline GECO 2024. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] doi: 10.2905/1a5f5ab1-2254-467f-99c3-b7fbcb911655 PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/1a5f5ab1-2254-467f-99c3-b7fbcb911655

Data access

Baseline GECO 2024 - Excel tables
Download 

Publications

Publication 2025
Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2024
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, KERAMIDAS, K., FOSSE, F., AYCART LAZO, F.J., DOWLING, P., GARAFFA, R., ORDONEZ, J., PETROVIC, S., RUSS, P., SCHADE, B., SCHMITZ, A., SORIA RAMIREZ, A., VAN DER VORST, C. and WEITZEL, M., Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2024, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/9028706 (online), JRC139986.
  • Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Publication page 
  • Abstract

    This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2024), in its 10th year of publication, presents an updated view of the implications of energy and climate policies worldwide, finding that the world is still not on track to achieve its climate targets, as both implementation gaps (between current policies and pledges) and ambition gaps (between current pledges and a 1.5°C trajectory) remain. Whilst emissions peak in the coming years in all scenarios, the world is currently on track for 2.6°C of warming by the end of the century.

    Updated NDCs are due in 2025, to support the UNFCCC NDC update cycle GECO 2024 presents a set of 1.5°C-aligned indicators for 2035

    along 4 main decarbonisation strategies:

    i) producing clean electricity ii) Electrifying

    end-uses and improving energy efficiency iii) decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors iv) scaling-up negative emissions.

    The current decade is key for keeping the 1.5°C target possible, and aligning NDC targets with a Paris Agreement compatible trajectory represents an indispensable step in this direction. Accelerating the power sector transition towards renewable energy sources is crucial to decarbonise the whole energy sector via simultaneous electrification of end uses. Decarbonising remaining sectors that are more costly to electricity requires ramping up the production of low-carbon fuels such as biomass, hydrogen and e-fuels, alongside deploying more mature technologies such as carbon capture and storage, among other. Despite ambitious efforts to mitigate emissions, it is increasingly clear that the world’s 1.5°C pathway is likely to result in global temperature overshoot, and therefore negative emissions from both land-use sinks and the energy sector are required. The indicators presented in GECO 2024’s Country Sheets follow these main decarbonisation strategies, with the aim to guide negotiators during the forthcoming NDC update cycle.

Additional information

Published by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Created date
2025-01-31
Modified date
2025-03-11
Issued date
2024-01-01
Data theme(s)
Economy and finance, Energy
Update frequency
annual
Identifier
http://data.europa.eu/89h/1a5f5ab1-2254-467f-99c3-b7fbcb911655
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