BLUE2 MEME Ensemble Means

Collection: MMF-BLUE2 : European marine modelling resources 


Ensemble means of the relative change for core eutrophication indicators between the BLUE2 scenarios REF and MTFR provided by the Network of Experts for ReDeveloping Models of the European Marine Environment (MEME.


jrc-mmf (at)


  • Rene Friedland
  • Svetla Miladinova
  • Adolf Stips
  • Elisa Garcia-Gorriz
  • Diego Macias
  • Ove Parn
  • Chiara Piroddi

How to cite

Friedland, Rene; Miladinova, Svetla; Stips, Adolf; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Macias, Diego; Parn, Ove; Piroddi, Chiara (2021): BLUE2 MEME Ensemble Means. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID:

Data access

BLUE2 Ensemble Means


Effects of nutrient management scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators: a pan-European, multi-model assessment in support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
Friedland, R., Macias Moy, D., Cossarini, G., Daewel, U., Estournel, C., Garcia Gorriz, E., Grizzetti, B., Grégoire, M., Gustafson, B., Kalaroni, S., Kerimoglu, O., Lazzari, P., Lenhart, H., Lessin, G., Maljutenko, I., Miladinova-Marinova, S., Muller-Karulis, B., Neumann, T., Parn, O., Pätsch, J., Piroddi, C., Raudsepp, U., Schrum, C., Stegert, C., Stips, A., Tsiaras, K., Ulses, C. and Vandenbulcke, L., Effects of nutrient management scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators: a pan-European, multi-model assessment in support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-7745 (online), 8, 2021, p. 596126, JRC120387.
Publication page 
  • Abstract

    A novel pan-European marine model ensemble was established, covering nearly all seas under the regulation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), with the aim of providing a consistent assessment of the potential impacts of riverine nutrient reduction scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators. For each sea region, up to five coupled biogeochemical models from institutes all over Europe were brought together for the first time. All model systems followed a harmonised scenario approach and ran two simulations, which varied only in the riverine nutrient inputs. The load reductions were evaluated with the catchment model GREEN and represented the impacts due to improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatment in all European river systems. The model ensemble, comprising 15 members, was used to assess changes to the core eutrophication indicators as defined within MSFD Descriptor 5. In nearly all marine regions, riverine load reductions led to reduced nutrient concentrations in the marine environment. However, regionally the nutrient input reductions led to an increase in the non-limiting nutrient in the water, especially in the case of phosphate concentrations in the Black Sea. Further core eutrophication indicators, such as chlorophyll-a, bottom oxygen and the Trophic Index TRIX, improved nearly everywhere, but the changes were less pronounced than for the inorganic nutrients. The model ensemble displayed strong consistency and robustness, as most if not all models indicated improvements in the same areas. There were substantial differences between the individual seas in the speed of response to the reduced nutrient loads. In the North Sea ensemble, a stable plateau was reached after only three years, while the simulation period of eight years was too short to obtain steady model results in the Baltic Sea. The ensemble exercise confirmed the importance of improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatments in the river catchments to reduce marine eutrophication. Several shortcomings were identified, the outcome of different approaches to compute the mean change was estimated and potential improvements are discussed to enhance policy support. Applying a model ensemble enabled us to obtain highly robust and consistent model results, substantially decreasing uncertainties in the scenario outcome.

Geographic areas

European Union

Spatial coverage

Type Value
POLYGON((-20 67,45 67,45 30,-20 30,-20 67))

Temporal coverage

From date To date
2005-01-01 2012-12-31

Additional information

Published by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Created date
Modified date
Issued date
Data theme(s)
Agriculture, fisheries, forestry and food
Update frequency