DELi regional socioeconomic projections 2024

The DELi regional socioeconomic projections 2024 include projections of annual population change rate, natural change rate, net migration rate, GDP growth and GDP per capita growth for the EU27 at the NUTS3 level according to the NUTS 2021 version. All the changes are expressed in percentage points. The population change rate corresponds to the sum of natural change rate and net migration rate. Population change, natural change and net migration for the year x can be obtained as follows: population_change(x) = population(x) * pop_change_rate(x) / 100, natural_change(x) = population(x) * nat_change_rate(x) / 100, net_migration(x) = population(x) * net_mig_rate(x) / 100. For population projections: population(x+1) = population(x) + population_change(x) = population(x) * (1 + pop_change_rate(x) / 100). For GDP projections: GDP(x+1) = GDP(x) * (1 + GDP_growth(x) / 100).

UNIT OF MEASURE: pop_change_rate, nat_change_rate, net_mig_rate, GDP_growth, GDPpc_growth.

RESOLUTION: NUTS3.

COMPLETENESS: EU27, missing Départements d'Outre Mer (FRY10, FRY20, FRY30, FRY40, FRY50).

POLICY CONTEXT: This dataset was produced in the context of the Rural Observatory, in a collaboration between the JRC, DG AGRI and DE REGIO. A working paper has been published analysing the results of the projections, available at https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140514

METHODOLOGY: The projections have been generated using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model. DELi regionalizes exogenous, socioeconomic and demographic projections from national to regional level, capturing interactions between demography, economy, and land use. The DELi model is described in a dedicated technical report: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136498

DATA SOURCES: The regional projections have been generated using national level projections and historical regional data. The national level projections have been retrieved from the ageing report 2021 (https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2021-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-2019-2070_en). The historical regional data have been retrieved from ARDECO (https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/territorial/ardeco-database_en).

LEVEL OF AGGREGATION: NUTS3

UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITATIONS: These projections are based on a 'business as usual' scenario, whereby observed variable relationships remain constant in the future. DELi does predict shocks and their impacts.