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Global Extreme Sea Level projections

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In this study we present probabilistic projections of Extreme Sea Levels (ESL) until the end of the 21st century along the global coastline, by considering the contribution of mean sea level, tides, waves and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely (90% probability) increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario, and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Intensification of the frequency of the design conditions is projected under both of the RCP scenarios for most of the shorelines, implying for timely actions towards coastal adaptation.

Contributors

Evangelos Voukouvalas; Lorenzo Mentaschi; Luc Feyen; Luke Jackson; Martin Verlaan; Michail Vousdoukas; Svetlana Jevrejeva

How to cite

Vousdoukas, Michail; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Feyen, Luc (2026): Global Extreme Sea Level projections. European Commission, Joint Research Centre [Dataset] doi: 10.2905/JRC.QKG2TG0; 10.2905/jrc-liscoast-10012 PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/jrc-liscoast-10012

Keywords

Climate ChangeCoastal ZoneExtreme EventsMean Sea LevelSea Level RiseStorm Surge LevelTidesWaves

Data access

Total Water Level components - Present day
NetCDF

NetCDF is a set of software libraries and self-describing, machine-independent data formats that support the creation, access and sharing of array-oriented scientific data.
Downloadable file

A downloadable file for the dataset.

Use conditions
European Commission reuse notice

According to the European Commission reuse notice, reuse is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Decision of 12 December 2011. The general principle of reuse can be subject to conditions which may be specified in individual copyright notices. Therefore users are advised to refer to the copyright notices of the individual websites maintained under Europa and of the individual documents. Reuse is not applicable to documents subject to intellectual property rights of third parties.

Access conditions
No limitations

Anybody can directly and anonymously access the data, without being required to register or authenticate.

  • 100-year event Total Water Level along the global coastline for the period 1980 - 2014, including the 5th, 50th and 95th quantiles. Similar data are included also for the contributing components: mean sea level, tides and extreme weather events (wave setup+storm surge).

Total Water Level components - RCP45
NetCDF

NetCDF is a set of software libraries and self-describing, machine-independent data formats that support the creation, access and sharing of array-oriented scientific data.
Downloadable file

A downloadable file for the dataset.

Use conditions
European Commission reuse notice

According to the European Commission reuse notice, reuse is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Decision of 12 December 2011. The general principle of reuse can be subject to conditions which may be specified in individual copyright notices. Therefore users are advised to refer to the copyright notices of the individual websites maintained under Europa and of the individual documents. Reuse is not applicable to documents subject to intellectual property rights of third parties.

Access conditions
No limitations

Anybody can directly and anonymously access the data, without being required to register or authenticate.

  • 100-year event Total Water Level along the global coastline for the period 2015 - 2099 under the RCP45 emissions scenario, including the 5th, 50th and 95th quantiles. Similar data are included also for the contributing components: mean sea level, tides and extreme weather events (wave setup+storm surge).

Total Water Level components - RCP85
NetCDF

NetCDF is a set of software libraries and self-describing, machine-independent data formats that support the creation, access and sharing of array-oriented scientific data.
Downloadable file

A downloadable file for the dataset.

Use conditions
European Commission reuse notice

According to the European Commission reuse notice, reuse is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Decision of 12 December 2011. The general principle of reuse can be subject to conditions which may be specified in individual copyright notices. Therefore users are advised to refer to the copyright notices of the individual websites maintained under Europa and of the individual documents. Reuse is not applicable to documents subject to intellectual property rights of third parties.

Access conditions
No limitations

Anybody can directly and anonymously access the data, without being required to register or authenticate.

  • 100-year event Total Water Level along the global coastline for the period 2015 - 2099 under the RCP85 emissions scenario, including the 5th, 50th and 95th quantiles. Similar data are included also for the contributing components: mean sea level, tides and extreme weather events (wave setup+storm surge).

Temporal coverage

From date To date
1980-01-01 2099-12-31

Additional information

Published by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Contact email
jrc-liscoast-project (at) ec.europa.eu
Update frequency
irregular

The event occurs at uneven intervals.

Language(s)
English

English is a member of the West Germanic group of the Germanic languages. It is an official language of almost 60 sovereign states and is now a global lingua franca.It is the third-most-common native language in the world and it is widely learned as a second language.

Data theme(s)
Environment

dataset theme covering the domain of environment, defined as the interaction of all living species, climate, weather, and natural resources that impact human survival and economic activity
Science and technology

dataset theme covering the domains of science and technology, with science being the systematic pursuit of knowledge through testable explanations and predictions across natural, social, and formal disciplines, and technology encompassing the collective techniques, skills, methods, and processes used in producing goods, providing services, or achieving objectives like scientific research

Issued date
2018-04-18
Created date
14 Dec 2018 10:41
Modified date
26 Feb 2020 15:25
Landing page
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/ 
Dataset identifier
http://data.europa.eu/89h/jrc-liscoast-10012
Other identifiers
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