GHS-WUP-BUILT-S R2025A – GHS-WUP built-up surface spatial raster dataset, derived from GHS-BUILT-S (R2023) and projected using the CRISP model, multitemporal (1975-2100)

Spatial raster dataset grids representing the distribution of the total built-up (BU) surfaces estimates between 1975 and 2100 in 5 years intervals. The data between 1975 and 2020 is obtained from the GHS-BUILT-S R2023 product and the 2025-2100 total built-up surface projections are computed considering a stable non-residential built-up surface and modelling the growth of the residential component of the total built-up surface.

The CRISP model has been setup to disaggregate national population projections to 1km2 grid cells globally. This is done primarily to provide projections of population by degree of urbanisation for the 2025 World Urbanisation Prospects report produced by the UN. Many other applications are feasible with CRISP as well. The model estimates population and built-up area change in a three-step process. First, population and built-up area change are estimated for roughly 1000 functional areas taking into account national population projections. Second, new built-up area is allocated to grid cells considering distance to settlements, roads, water, current share of built-up area and other characteristics. Finally, population is added to newly built-up areas and more suitable locations and reduced in less suitable locations to capture internal migration (and natural population decline).

The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) project produces new global spatial information, evidence-based analytics and knowledge describing the human presence on Earth. It operates in a fully open and free data and methods access policy. The knowledge generated with the GHSL is supporting the definition, the public discussion and the implementation of European policies and the monitoring of international frameworks such as the 2030 Development Agenda. The GHSL is the core data set of the Exposure Mapping Component under the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. GHSL data continue to support the GEO Human Planet Initiative that is committed to developing a new generation of measurements and information products providing new scientific evidence and a comprehensive understanding of the human presence on the planet and that can support global policy processes with agreed, actionable and goal-driven metrics.

This document describes the public release of the GHSL World Urbanisation Prospects (GHS-WUP) Projections Data Package 2025 (GHS-WUP R2025). This release provides a long term time series and projections (1975-2100) of built-up surface and population grids, the derived Degree of Urbanisation (DEGURBA) grids, country statistics (area, built-up surface and population) based on the DEGURBA classification (with population by DEGURBA backcasted to 1950) and the multi-temporal urban centres along with their statistics and descriptors (name, country, area, built-up surface and population, with population backcasted to 1950).

The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has produced long timeseries of global population by degree of urbanization, as well as for each city in the world. These long timeseries describe population changes by degree of urbanization, that is for cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas, as well as for individual cities from 1950 to 2100. They were produced as inputs for the 2025 UN World Urbanization Prospects report, complementing UN statistics on urban/rural population according to national definitions. The timeseries were obtained by combining three sources, namely rescaled GHS-POP grids for the period 1975-2020, supplemented with backcast population estimates for the period 1975-1950, and population grids projected by the CRISP model for the period 2020-2100. The report outlines the various sources and relevant inputs and shows a selection of results to characterize the data produced.