Scenarios of nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the sea (2015-2054) - (v. Apr.2024)

Bruna Grizzetti; Angel Udias Moinelo; Olga Vigiak; Alberto Pistocchi; Alberto Aloe; Maria Bielza; Berny Bisselink; Faycal Bouraoui; Alexander De Meij; Thomas Fellmann; Jordan Hristov; Diego Macias Moy; Chiara Piroddi; Enrico Pisoni; Franz Weiss; Matteo Zampieri; Michela Zanni

Description

This spatial dataset provides annual estimates of nutrient loads (Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus) at the outlets of European river basins, using the GREEN model (Grizzetti et al. 2025; version April 2024) for the period 2015-2054, under two scenarios:

(1) Reference - REF: This scenario estimates changes in nutrient loads due to climate change, assuming nutrient input sources remain the same as in 2020. Climate model predictions are simulated by CCLM4-8-17, driven by MPI-ESM-LR.

(2) Dynamic Baseline - DB: This scenario estimates changes in nutrient loads due to both climate change and existing EU policies (as of 2024). Nutrient input sources are reduced according to EU legislation requirements (see Grizzetti et al. 2025 for details). Climate model predictions are simulated by CCLM4-8-17, driven by MPI-ESM-LR.

The dataset includes the total load and apportionment of the load to different sources, as estimated by the GREEN model. These sources include:

(i) Agricultural sources (mineral and organic fertilization, crop and soil fixation); (ii) Atmospheric deposition; (iii) Scattered dwellings; (iv) Point sources (domestic and industrial discharges).

The nutrient loads to the sea account for the reduction of nutrient sources through attenuation processes that occur in land, river reaches, and lakes.

Additionally, the dataset provides the average and standard deviation of Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus loads simulated by the GREEN model using 11 climate model predictions under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway, for both the REF and DB scenarios (see Grizzetti et al. 2025 for details).

The river basin hydrological data model is based on the Catchment Characterisation and Modelling approach (Vogt et al. 2007; https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/fe1878e8-7541-4c66-8453-afdae7469221).

Contact

Email: EU-HUB-WATER-AGRICULTURE (at) ec.europa.eu

Contributors

Bruna Grizzetti

0000-0001-5570-8581
Angel Udias Moinelo

0000-0003-1219-0465
Olga Vigiak

0009-0007-3216-2337
Alberto Pistocchi

0000-0002-3696-873X
Alberto Aloe
Maria Bielza
Berny Bisselink
Faycal Bouraoui

0000-0002-7167-9642
Alexander De Meij
Thomas Fellmann
Jordan Hristov

0000-0002-9303-5645
Diego Macias Moy
Chiara Piroddi
Enrico Pisoni
Franz Weiss
Matteo Zampieri
Michela Zanni

0009-0008-2336-1040

How to cite

Grizzetti, Bruna; Udias Moinelo, Angel; Vigiak, Olga; Pistocchi, Alberto; Aloe, Alberto; Bielza, Maria; Bisselink, Berny; Bouraoui, Faycal; De Meij, Alexander; Fellmann, Thomas; Hristov, Jordan; Macias Moy, Diego; Piroddi, Chiara; Pisoni, Enrico; Weiss, Franz; Zampieri, Matteo; Zanni, Michela (2025): Scenarios of nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the sea (2015-2054) - (v. Apr.2024). European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/61b7199d-fc93-4ba2-ad87-14e7e82e0cb6

Keywords

agriculture environmental policy nitrogen nutrient phosphorus scenario modeling waste water water resource management

Data access

Scenarios of nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the sea (2015-2054) - (v. Apr.2024) - File geodatabase

Use conditions: European Commission reuse notice
Access conditions: No limitations

URL

Publications

Publication

Effects of EU policy and climate change on future delivery of nutrients to European freshwater and seas

Grizzetti et al. 2025 Environ. Res. Lett. 20 124055

DOI

10.1088/1748-9326/ae1b7e

Spatial coverage

GML

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GML

<gml:Polygon xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.2">  <gml:exterior>    <gml:LinearRing>      <gml:posList>-11 71.2 51 71.2 51 31.6 -11 31.6 -11 71.2</gml:posList>    </gml:LinearRing>  </gml:exterior></gml:Polygon>

WKT

POLYGON ((-11 71.2, 51 71.2, 51 31.6, -11 31.6, -11 71.2))

Temporal coverage

From date	To date
2015-01-01	2054-12-31

Additional information

Published by: European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Created date: 2025-12-04
Modified date: 2025-12-22
Issued date: 2025-12-22
Landing page: https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/water_en
Language(s): English
Data theme(s): Agriculture, fisheries, forestry and food, Environment
Update frequency: irregular
Identifier: http://data.europa.eu/89h/61b7199d-fc93-4ba2-ad87-14e7e82e0cb6
Popularity