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GDO Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions based on the forecast of ECMWF, 1-month lead time (version 1.0.0)

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This layer provides an early warning of extreme temperature conditions over the world based on accumulated intensity of daily temperature exceedances of the forecast with lead times ranging from 0 to 3 months. These are derived from the forecasted daily maximum and minimum temperatures relative to the 10th/90th percentile of the climatology provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The early warning is plotted only when and where the forecast is considered robust (with at least 40% of the ensemble members associated with extreme forecasts) and associated with relative extreme values (based on hindcasts). The colors indicate the return period of the intensity and the coherency of the ensemble members of the forecast model according to the reference period that spans from 1993 to 2016.

Contributors

ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast; EDO European and Global Drought Observatories

How to cite

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (2026): GDO Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions based on the forecast of ECMWF, 1-month lead time (version 1.0.0). [Dataset] doi: 10.2905/JRC.4VYDABR PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/11787785-03be-4012-a1ec-fa08e98d85fb

Keywords

CEMSCopernicusECMWFEuropean Drought ObservatoryExtreme TemperatureForecastGlobal Drought ObservatoryTemperature

Data access

Data Download URL
NetCDF

NetCDF is a set of software libraries and self-describing, machine-independent data formats that support the creation, access and sharing of array-oriented scientific data.
Downloadable file

A downloadable file for the dataset.

Use conditions
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

CC BY 4.0 lets others distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon the author’s work, even commercially, as long as they credit the author for the original creation. This is the most accommodating of licences offered. Recommended for maximum dissemination and use of licenced materials.

Access conditions
No limitations

Anybody can directly and anonymously access the data, without being required to register or authenticate.

Other resources

Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions Factsheet
PDF

PDF – Portable Document Format – is a file format developed to present documents, including text formatting and images, in a manner independent of application software, hardware and operating systems. Based on the PostScript language, each PDF file encapsulates a complete description of a fixed-layout flat document, including the text, fonts, vector graphics, raster images and other information needed to display it. PDF was standardized as an open format and does not require any royalties for its implementation.

Use conditions
European Commission reuse notice

According to the European Commission reuse notice, reuse is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Decision of 12 December 2011. The general principle of reuse can be subject to conditions which may be specified in individual copyright notices. Therefore users are advised to refer to the copyright notices of the individual websites maintained under Europa and of the individual documents. Reuse is not applicable to documents subject to intellectual property rights of third parties.

Access conditions
No limitations

Anybody can directly and anonymously access the data, without being required to register or authenticate.

  • Factsheet

Spatial coverage

Temporal coverage

From date To date
2025-10-01 N/A

Additional information

Published by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Contact email
JRC-EMS-DROUGHT (at) ec.europa.eu
Update frequency
monthly

The event occurs once a month.

Language(s)
English

English is a member of the West Germanic group of the Germanic languages. It is an official language of almost 60 sovereign states and is now a global lingua franca.It is the third-most-common native language in the world and it is widely learned as a second language.

Data theme(s)
Environment

dataset theme covering the domain of environment, defined as the interaction of all living species, climate, weather, and natural resources that impact human survival and economic activity

Geographical name(s)
World
Issued date
2025-08-11
Created date
11 Aug 2025 13:47
Modified date
06 Oct 2025 07:17
Landing page
https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 
Dataset identifier
http://data.europa.eu/89h/11787785-03be-4012-a1ec-fa08e98d85fb
Other identifiers
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