Description
We present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1 km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2 and 28.8% for 2050 and 27–34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30–66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.
Contact
Contributors
-
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre
- https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/joint-research-centre
How to cite
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) (2022): Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/d3f95159-f28e-4992-8bec-6cb929495529
Data access
We present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1 km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2 and 28.8% for 2050 and 27–34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30–66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.
Publications
Additional information
- Published by
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre
- Created date
- 2023-06-23
- Modified date
- 2023-06-23
- Issued date
- 2022-04-29
- Landing page
- https://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu/content/global-rainfall-erosivity-projections-2050-and-2070
- Language(s)
- English
- Data theme(s)
- Environment
- Update frequency
- never
- Identifier
- http://data.europa.eu/89h/d3f95159-f28e-4992-8bec-6cb929495529
- Popularity
-